Losing starts at the top

Basketball Betting Lines

03/12/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - March is when college basketball vaults to the top of the sports scene. It also happens to be when I really start to pay attention to the college game with an eye on June's draft.

Conventional wisdom says college hoops is the "coach's game" while the pros is for the players. For the most part, I agree with that. The real stars of college basketball are the mentors calling timeout after timeout to extend a 13-point game with the hopes some athletic director at a bigger school is so impressed, he gets offered a deal to flee from the same teenagers he recruited a year ago with the promise he would always be there for them. On the other hand, the NBA is all about Kobe, LeBron, CP3 and Dwayne Wade.

Give the worst coach LeBron and he's going to beat every Larry Brown that comes down the pike.

That said, you have to find a way to procure the talent that will give the pedestrian coach the edge over the Hall of Fame pilot and that starts at the very top of the food chain -- ownership.

Great ownership can't guarantee you anything other than competitiveness but bad ownership is a recipe for losing consistently. Look no further than a pair of cities separated by 3,000 miles -- Los Angeles and Philadelphia -- to prove that thesis.

The Clippers' Donald Sterling thought so much of Mike Dunleavy this year that he fired him twice. Sure if we play semantics, Dunleavy stepped down as head coach last month to concentrate on his duties as general manager but everyone knows he was forced out.

On Tuesday, Sterling finally showed the courage of his convictions and went ahead and fired Dunleavy as general manager with five weeks to go in the regular season.

The news stunned Dunleavy, who had no idea he joined the growing ranks on the unemployed. "Had no clue!" Dunleavy said in an e-mail to The Los Angles Times.

It was typical Sterling, a real estate mogul that is almost universally considered one of the worst owners in all of sports since taking over the Clips in 1981-82. Whether its karma or just plain incompetence, the Clips' history under Sterling is scarier than anything Wes Craven ever produced.

Brown had the franchise heading in the right direction in the early 1990s but the nomadic one got antsy and packed his bags long before anything real was accomplished. Meanwhile, Dunleavy, joined the Clippers in 2003 and led the team to their lone playoff success in 2006.

Widely criticized for his tight hold over the purse strings and unwillingness to invest in his own team, Sterling seemed to have an epiphany when Dunleavy arrived but things have reverted back to form and the Clips are bottom-feeders again.

Across the country in Philadelphia, things are a bit different.

The Sixers have a storied history, both good and bad. The 1966-67 team led by Wilt Chamberlain and Hal Greer was once voted the best team in NBA history and, contrary to revisionist history that plays up Larry Bird's Celtics and Magic Johnson's Lakers, it was the 1982-83 Sixers team, fueled by Moses Malone and Julius Erving, that was the best team of that era. Meanwhile, the 1972-73 club was the worst in NBA history, finishing 9-73.

Today's Sixers are a lot closer to the '72-73 bunch than any championship teams but it wasn't like that earlier this decade when Pat Croce was in charge.

Croce became president of the Sixers in 1996 as part of a group led by Philadelphia Flyers founder Ed Snider and the Comcast Corporation that bought the team. Under Croce's reign, the Sixers went from last place in 1996 to the NBA Finals in 2001.

Giddy with success and upset he had to report to Snider, Croce attempted what can only be described as a coup, a plan quickly quashed by Snider, a sort of real life Two-Face, the fictional Batman villain with the dual personality.

The comic book version of Two-Face was of course Harvey Dent, the DA of Gotham City and a close ally of the Dark Knight. After a criminal disfigured half of his face with acid, Dent became the insane crime boss Two-Face who would choose to do either good or evil depending on the flip of a coin.

Snider may not be a criminal mastermind but he displays a similar dichotomy to fans of Philadelphia. To Flyers fans, Ed is a hero -- a never say die owner who will do anything to win. While the Stanley Cup hasn't taken up residence in the city in over 35 years, area hockey fans generally genuflect at the sight of Snider and all agree it hasn't been due to a lack of effort.

To Sixers fans, Snider is a clod. An absentee buffoon of an owner happy to collect the riches of the NBA's massive television contract while ignoring the product he puts on the floor.

After striking out with Elton Brand two offseasons ago, Snider and Sixers general manager Ed Stefanski had one bullet in their chamber for 2009-10 -- a new head coach.

Instead of hiring Doug Collins or Avery Johnson the team settled on Eddie Jordan, an abject disaster. Most blame Stefanski since he has a long history with Jordan and loves the guy but make no mistake, the Sixers' basketball chief wasn't given the checkbook to sign a big-time coach.

Philadelphia is now back at square one in salary cap hell, weighing whether to fire Jordan right now or let him coach through the end of the season while demanding he give more playing time to younger players such as Jrue Holiday, Jodie Meeks and Jason Smith.

In the end, it's all window dressing.

As long as Sterling and Snider are at the top of their respective organizations pulling their ill-conceived strings, losing is virtually predetermined for both the Clippers and Sixers.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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