Dodge faces win-or-else season at North Texas

NCAA Football Betting Lines

09/04/2010 -

DENTON, Texas (AP) -Todd Dodge is no longer the hot shot high school coach hired to energize the North Texas football program.

After 31 losses in three years, he's just trying to hang on to his job and avoid becoming another case study in why it's so rare for a coach to be plucked from the preps and put in charge of a major college team.

The athletic director who grabbed Dodge after he went 79-1 in five years at Southlake Carroll High School expects a winning season, which means at least seven victories when Dodge has just five in his college career.

Clemson, nearly a four-touchdown favorite Saturday in the season opener, inadvertently illustrated how far Dodge has fallen, referring to him as ``Tom Dodge'' in pregame notes.

``It's been very disappointing at times, with not being where I thought we'd be,'' Dodge said. ``We've taken a lot of black eyes and bloody noses.''

Dodge's first two years were tough and tougher, marked by routine blowouts on the field and sticky issues off it. Players kicked off the 2007 team accused him and his staff of racial bias, although the coaches were cleared by administrators. A year later, Dodge suspected some players were using drugs and tested every one of them during the season. Fifteen came back positive.

Perhaps the biggest setback came next, when two-year starting quarterback Giovanni Vizza left the team after the 2008 season. Not only was it critical to lose experience at the most important position in a four-receiver spread offense, but Dodge was hearing from others that Vizza figured the coach would start his son, then-redshirt freshman Riley Dodge.

``I recruited my son because he was the best possible option,'' Dodge said. ``But that didn't mean he was going to start over a guy that started for two years. When you go 1-11, everybody on the football team has to compete. But still, I'd invested 20 starts in a guy.''

With Vizza gone, Riley Dodge started 10 games, but the results were about the same. Now the coach's son - who won a state title in his dad's last high school season - isn't a full-time quarterback thanks to shoulder and arm injuries. He is listed as a receiver and just hoping to contribute for the next three years as a utility guy on offense.

``It's just different going from winning all the time to kind of struggling,'' Riley Dodge said. ``It builds a lot of character. It has humbled me and my dad a little bit.''

Nathan Tune is the quarterback now. The fifth-year senior with just two career starts holds the keys to a pass-happy offense that will go a long way toward determining whether Dodge stays or becomes Gerry Faust, the last coach who went straight from the prep ranks to the highest level of college football. Notre Dame fired him in 1985 after five mediocre seasons.

Defense will have to play a role, too. North Texas was last in the nation in scoring defense Dodge's first two seasons, another setback for him because he was criticized for bringing too many high school coaches with him, including his defensive coordinator. That coach was fired after the first season when the Mean Green gave up more than 70 points twice and 66 in another game.

All four former Carroll assistants are gone, leaving Dodge surrounded by assistants with more much college experience.

``We need a very experienced staff that has been at this level and understands some of the things at this level,'' athletic director Rick Villarreal said. ``And I think today Todd understands more about this level. I don't think he could have imagined that when he first took the job.''

Dodge was hired to help create a buzz and complete a push for a new stadium. The stadium part of the plan succeeded, but the buzz among alumni has been replaced by doubt. There's a chance Dodge won't be around when the new stadium opens next year.

Such circumstances are nothing new to Dodge, the former Texas quarterback who endured stinging criticism when he led the Longhorns in the 1980s. He knows what his athletic director expects, and he's ``fine with it.''

``The tough times here have not gotten in the way of me believing in how I can lead a football team and what our football team can do,'' Dodge said. ``When my time is over with, there won't be any excuses. Would I have done things differently? Sure.''

The victory count isn't likely to start against Clemson, but the Tigers should be the toughest opponent on the schedule. While last year's 2-10 record was the second in three years under Dodge, the Mean Green were much more competitive. Six of the losses were by a touchdown or less.

North Texas also has hope of a strong running game to complement Dodge's pass-first scheme. Lance Dunbar finished among the national leaders last year with 1,378 yards and 17 touchdowns rushing in just eight starts. Six of the team's top eight defenders return, including Craig Robertson, the leading tackler.

``Are we going to go 12-0? No. I don't think so,'' Dodge said. ``But we do have the potential to win seven or eight ball games. We're in a window of the 2010-11 seasons where we can really flip this thing and not look back.''

If not, it's probably back to high schools for Dodge.Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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American Idol odds : Blake Lewis the Early Standout

An important American Idol betting lines recap from February 20 Guys episode. The 12 men came out flat overall with Blake Lewis appearing to have the early edge after the first hour and a half.

Rudy - was quite good singing "Free Ride" to start off.  Randy was not impressed though.  Paula thought he started off fantastic.  "Never had anyone stop off so lively" said Paula but Simon (who does not like Rudy) does not feel he has a distinct voice and was not impressed either. 

Brandon was a little pitchy according to Randy and Paula agreed.  Simon said he was a good singer but the song was "too safe" and he needs to make an impact.  He was listed at +1200 odds or $1200 paid out on a $100 bet should he win the competition. 

Big favorite Sundance came in with a flat version of "Knights in White Satin" and the judges let him have it, including Paula.  Randy claimed the song was out of pitch throughout.

Korean American - and a Jenny Woo favorite - Paul Kim was up next.  Another pitchy flat one but Randy said he still liked his potential.  Kim at +3000 odds was said to have sung a "third rate version of that (George Michael) song" according to Simon Cowell.  He sang "Careless Whisper".

22 year old Chris Richardson was up next.  He was listed with +1100 odds coming in.  He got the best response from the judges though Simon did not believe the vocal was that great. 

Nick was boring and pitchy.  Simon didn't think he was that bad though and predicted he would be back next week.  Nick Pedro was a big +3000 dog coming into this competition. 

Beat boxer Blake Lewis was listed with early +1000 odds or $1000 payout on a $100 bet if he were to become the next American Idol winner odds .  These of course were the early odds.  He was considered original for picking an "odd song".  He did not beat box and the judges felt it was the best vocal of the night. 

Sanjaya came in as the second biggest favorite after Chris Sligh but his performance Tuesday night was not very good. 

Chris Sleigh was the early favorite at +450 odds.  Great voice and a great sense of humor.  He's a real standout.  Randy felt it was on point but maybe ahead of the chorus a little bit.  Simon Cowell said he felt like he was in some "sort of weird student gig". 

Jared Cotter followed.  He was listed with +2000 odds early on to win the competition.  The judges felt he needs to take more risks but looked good. 

22-year old AJ Talbado, who has tried out for American Idol five times, was up next.  "Kind of a theme park performance" said Simon.  Though the judges felt he performed okay.  Simon did feel AJ might be better than he originally thought.

Phil - this season's military favorite - came into this competition with +1200 odds to win the competition.  He was the last to perform.  He was certainly strong enough to get through this stage of the competition and perhaps the best one after a shaky start. 

Tomorrow night, the ladies perform and I sure hope they do a better job than the boys.  Check out all the American Idol betting odds here.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.