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09/03/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The last time the Cardinals faced the Reds, they completed a three-game sweep that gave them sole possession of first place in the National League Central.
The teams have drastically gone in opposite directions since.
First-place Cincinnati will try to extend its eight-game lead over second- place St. Louis this evening in the opener of a three-game series at Busch Stadium that by the end could put the division crown out of reach for the hosts.
The Cardinals have won four straight and 10 of 15 versus the Reds this year and they posted a three-game sweep in the last meeting from Aug. 8-11 -- a series that featured a benches-clearing brawl thanks to some unkind words towards St. Louis by Cincinnati's Brandon Phillips -- to take a one-game edge for the top spot in the division.
"They silenced our bats a little bit and we didn't pitch that great," Reds starter Bronson Arroyo said after the sweep. "It's not even close to being over. We have plenty of games left."
The Reds have made the most of their games since the series, winning 14 of 18, while the Cardinals have gone 5-13 and have matched a season high with five straight losses to give the Reds their largest division lead of the season.
Arroyo lost the finale of that sweep but gets the first chance at extending his team's current division lead. The right-hander yielded four runs over five innings back on Aug. 11 to fall to 1-2 with a 4.78 earned run average in four starts this year versus the Cardinals. That includes an outing at Busch Stadium on May 31 when he was drilled for seven runs over 4 1/3 frames.
Arroyo has a 2.61 ERA over his last seven starts though and is 14-8 with a 3.82 ERA on the season. The 33-year-old is coming off just his second loss in six starts (4-2) as he gave up three runs on five hits over seven innings against the Cubs on Saturday.
While Arroyo has had his troubles with the Cardinals this year, St. Louis rookie Jaime Garcia has won all three of his starts in 2010 against the Reds with a 4.08 ERA. His latest win in the series came on Aug. 10 despite giving up four runs on two hits and five walks over 5 1/3 innings.
Garcia, though, hasn't allowed an earned run in 20 1/3 consecutive innings, fanning 19 in that span. His run began in a loss to the Brewers on Aug. 17 in which he was touched for three unearned runs over six innings.
The 24-year-old southpaw responded with his first career shutout, a three- hitter versus the Giants on Aug. 22 and then won his second straight start last Friday after posting 5 1/3 scoreless innings in Washington while working around eight hits and four walks with seven strikeouts.
Garcia is 12-6 with a 2.33 ERA this year and sports a 1.55 ERA in 12 starts at home. He'll be looking tonight to halt a four-game winning streak by the Reds, a burst that includes a three-game sweep of the Brewers.
Cincinnati wrapped the series with Wednesday's 6-1 victory, scoring all of its runs in the seventh inning. Ryan Hanigan blasted a three-run homer in the frame, while Scott Rolen capped the burst with a two-run single.
The victory also featured the first win of Aroldis Chapman's major league career. The 22-year-old Cuban lefty has yet to allow a hit over his two appearances, striking out three over two inning while unleashing a fastball that has gone over 100 mph.
Fans would be in for a treat if Chapman faces the Cardinals' Albert Pujols, who is hitting .358 (19-for-53) in 15 games this year against the Reds with three homers and 14 RBI. However, Pujols went hitless in 10 at-bats in St. Louis' three-game sweep at the hands of Houston.
The Cardinals were bested, 5-2, in Wednesday's finale. Matt Holliday drilled a two-run homer as St. Louis wrapped a 10-game road trip 2-8.
"We have to play better, obviously, but you just have to focus on the next game," Holliday said. "Sometimes if you get out and look at the big picture instead of focusing on the job at hand, you lose focus."
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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